Fishery Notice

The Fraser River Panel met July 19, 2022, to receive an update on the migration of the Fraser Sockeye run to date and review the status of migration conditions in the Fraser River watershed.	

Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) provided forecasts of the 2022 Fraser River Sockeye salmon abundance, timing and diversion rate to the Fraser Panel for pre-season planning purposes. The majority of Sockeye returning in 2022 will be recruits from adult spawners in 2017 (age 5) and 2018 (age 4). DFO has advised that Fraser River Sockeye salmon forecasts for 2022 continue to be highly uncertain, largely due to variability in annual survival rates and observation error in stock-recruitment data.

For periods of high discharge, the landslide at Big Bar in the Fraser River upstream of Lillooet will continue to be an impediment to upstream migration for Sockeye, Pink, Chinook, and Coho destined for spawning habitats upstream of the slide. Robust assessment programs to evaluate passage success, as well as mitigation measures such as fish transport and brood stock collection for enhancement purposes will continue for the 2022 season. Additional information can be found at the following link: 
http://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/pacific-smon-pacifique/big-bar-landslide-eboulement/index-eng.html

To put the Sockeye run size forecast uncertainty into context, there is a one in four chance that the actual number of returning Sockeye will be at or below 4,662,000 fish (the 25% probability level forecast) and there is a one in four chance that the actual number of returning Sockeye will be at or above 20,395,000 fish (the 75% probability level forecast). For pre-season planning purposes, the Fraser Panel used the 50% probability level forecast (equal chance of a higher or lower return) of 9,775,000 fish for all management groups. This return is below the cycle average. The largest contributing stocks for the 2022 return are expected to be the Chilko, Quesnel and Late Shuswap Sockeye; with Chilko and Quesnel spawning above the Big Bar Landslide.

For 2022 pre-season planning purposes the Early Stuart and Chilko forecast Area 20 median timing estimates were not adopted by the Fraser Panel during the June meeting. The Panel adopted pre-season timing for all stocks that were based on historical timing medians. The pre-season forecast of the proportion of Fraser River Sockeye salmon diverting their migration through Johnstone Strait of 48% was adopted by the Panel for planning purposes. This estimate was the average of two points estimates from different models of 51% and 46%.  

The snow pack volume in most areas of the Fraser River watershed was well above average from late spring through to July of this year. Pre-season water temperatures were predicted to be at or below historical averages for the summer and discharges were predicted to be above to well above historical averages for the early summer period. The observed water temperature at Qualark on July 18, 2022 was 14.6° Celsius which is 2.4° Celsius below average for this date. Water temperatures are forecast to increase to 16.1° Celsius by July 24. The Fraser River discharge at Hope on July 18 was 8,287 cubic meters per second which is 60% above the average discharge for this date. Discharge levels are forecast to drop to 7,412 cubic meters per second by July 24. Actual water temperatures and discharge levels will be monitored closely during the 2022 return to determine if migration issues develop. At current discharge levels, there continue to be observations of schooling Sockeye below Hell's Gate, and migration is expected to be delayed in many areas of the Fraser watershed, including but not limited to the Big Bar Landslide.

Management adjustments are additional fish that are removed from identified harvest levels and allowed to escape upstream in an attempt to assist in achievement of identified escapement objectives for the different run timing groups. The Salmon Commission conducted an extensive review of the pre-season and in-season approaches used to determine management adjustments. For pre-season planning purposes, the Fraser Panel adopted management adjustments for Early Stuart based on the median for all years since 1995, Early Summer based on the historical all years median, Summer run Sockeye based on the pre-season 31-day temperature and discharge model, and Late run based on the dominant/other years median. The in-season approach to determining management adjustments will remain similar to pre-season for all management groups except for the Early Stuart, which will shift to the in-season Supplemental Approach based on all years since 1977. The Panel will continue to be provided and review the results from the historical temperature and discharge models, as well as observations of fish health throughout the watershed when making in-season decisions.

The marine gill net test fisheries in Area 20 and at Round Island began on July 10 and 12, respectively. To date, catches at Round Island have been very low and variable, while catches in Area 20 were reasonably strong to start but have declined in the last two days.  The marine purse seine test fisheries in Areas 12, 13 and 20 are scheduled to commence on July 24, July 26 and July 25, respectively. 

Gill net test fishing began in the Fraser River on June 22 at Whonnock, July 12 at Cottonwood, July 14 at Brownsville Bar and July 15 at Qualark.  Recent catches in the river test fisheries have been low, with the exception of a catch of 27 Sockeye at Whonnock yesterday.   The Brownsville Bar test fishery is a continuation of a program initiated in 2021 and is being evaluated as a replacement for Cottonwood.

DNA samples from the Area 12 gill net test fishery collected on July 15 and 16,  indicated that between 21% and 24% are Early Stuart Sockeye, 65% are Early Summer run Sockeye and between 11% and 14% are Summer run Sockeye.  DNA samples from the Area 20 gill net test fishery collected on July 13 and 15, indicated that between 17% and 29% are Early Stuart Sockeye, between 69% and 83% are Early Summer run Sockeye and between 0% and 2% are Summer run stocks. Recent DNA samples from Brownsville Bar and Cottonwood collected on July 14 to 16 indicated that between 65% and 88% are Early Stuart Sockeye and between 12% and 35% are Early Summer run stocks. The current 5-day average diversion rate through Johnstone Strait is 36%.

The total escapement estimate to July 18, is estimated to be 225,900, of which 202,200 are estimated to be Early Stuart and 23,700 are estimated to be Early Summer run Sockeye. During the Panel call today a run size of 230,000 was adopted by the Panel for Early Stuart Sockeye with an Area 20 peak timing of July 6, which is two days later than pre-season timing.  The Panel also adopted a proportional difference between estimates (pDBE) of -0.93 based on the Supplemental Approach.  This pDBE equates to a proportional management adjustment of 13.29, and at this run size and management adjustment there is no TAC for Early Stuart Sockeye.  Continued high discharge levels in the Fraser River are slowing the upstream migration of Early Stuart and the early-timed Early Summer run Sockeye, and there is significant concern, given recent observations of milling and holding fish, that many of the Sockeye in the lower Fraser River will not reach the spawning areas. In-season assessment of all run timing groups generally occurs shortly after identification of their peak migration through marine areas. 

Currently, First Nations food, social and ceremonial (FSC) Sockeye fisheries are closed due a 4-week window closure to protect Early Stuart and the earlier-timed Early Summer run stocks. Very limited fishing opportunities directed at Chinook salmon for ceremonial purposes have occurred to date with non-retention restrictions in place for Sockeye. The start-up of Sockeye directed FSC fisheries is not anticipated until Fraser Sockeye total allowable catch (TAC) is identified, which will like be delayed until Fraser River discharge levels drop significantly. FSC fishers in marine approach areas as well as the Fraser River are requested to check for the opening times and any restrictions in their local area. Commercial and recreational fisheries directed at Fraser Sockeye remain closed at this time. 

The next in-season meeting of the Fraser River Panel is scheduled to occur on July 22, 2022.

FOR MORE INFORMATION:

Regional Salmon Team - DFO Pacific
DFO.PacificSalmonRMT-EGRSaumonduPacifique.MPO@dfo-mpo.gc.ca

Fisheries & Oceans Operations Center - FN0755
Sent July 19, 2022 at 1423

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Printed from the Pacific Region web site on May 17, 2024 at 0253