Fishery Notice

The Fraser River Panel met Tuesday, July 10, to receive an update on the 
migration of the Fraser sockeye runs to date and review the status of migration 
conditions in the Fraser River watershed.	

Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) provided forecasts of the 2018 Fraser River 
sockeye salmon abundance, timing and diversion rate to the Fraser Panel prior 
to the season. The majority of sockeye returning in 2018 will be recruits from 
adult spawners in 2013 and 2014 with the latter being the Adams River dominant 
cycle line. DFO has advised that Fraser River sockeye salmon forecasts for 2018 
continue to be highly uncertain due to variability in annual survival rates and 
uncertainty about changes in their productivity as a result of the warm blob 
from 2013 to 2016 and the subsequent El Nino at the end of 2016 into early 
2017. 

To put the sockeye run size forecast uncertainty into context, there is a one 
in four chance that the actual number of returning sockeye will be at or below 
8,423,000 fish (the 25% probability level forecast) and there is a one in four 
chance that the actual number of returning sockeye will be at or above 
22,937,000 fish (the 75% probability level forecast). For pre-season planning 
purposes, the Fraser Panel used the 50% probability level forecast (equal 
chance of a higher or lower return) of 13,981,000 fish for all management 
groups. This is similar to the cycle average of 13.7 million. The largest 
contributing stocks for the 2018 return are expected to be the Late Shuswap, 
Chilko, Quesnel, and Early Shuswap.

For 2018 pre-season planning purposes the Early Stuart and Chilko forecast 
timing of July 2 and August 11 respectively were adopted by the Fraser Panel at 
the June meeting in Suquamish, Washington. Timing for all other sockeye stocks 
is based on historical correlations with the Early Stuart and Chilko timings 
mentioned above. The pre-season forecast of the proportion of Fraser River 
sockeye salmon diverting their migration through Johnstone Strait is 56%.  
Given the recent high diversion rates on this cycle line through Johnstone 
Strait the Panel chose to adopt the 1990-2017 median diversion rate of 63% for 
planning purposes.

The snow pack volume in the Fraser River watershed was well above average in 
March and April of this year, however a warmer than normal spring resulted in 
early snowmelt throughout the Fraser watershed resulting in well below average 
snowpack by June. As such it is anticipated that water levels will be well 
below average during the sockeye migration period. This combined with above 
average forecast for air temperatures has resulted in a prediction of water 
temperatures that will be above the historic mean for July and August. Actual 
water temperatures and discharge levels will be monitored closely during the 
2018 return to determine if migration issues are developing. 

For pre-season planning purposes the Fraser Panel has adopted management 
adjustments for Early Stuart based on the historical median for all years, 
Early Summer based on the historical median for dominant years only (2018 
cycle) and Summer run sockeye based on the historical median for all years. 
Model predicted management adjustments based on the water discharge and 
temperature predictions were not adopted largely due to the high degree of 
uncertainty in the forecasts. Management adjustments are additional fish that 
are removed from identified harvest levels and allowed to escape upstream in an 
attempt to assist in achievement of identified escapement objectives for the 
different run timing groups. In-season information over the coming weeks will 
help to inform future decisions on management adjustments for the Early Summer, 
Summer and Late run management groups while the Early Stuart management group 
will be managed based on the respective Low Abundance Exploitation Rate (LAER) 
of 10%. There will be no in-season estimates of management adjustment for Early 
Stuart in 2018 unless the run size is considerably larger than the median 
forecast and generates TAC. It is anticipated they will be managed to the LAER, 
with the expected outcome of a spawning escapement being below goal.

Gill net test fishing began in the Fraser River on June 22 at Whonnock and July 
2 at Qualark Creek.  The Area 20 gill net test fishery began today (July 10) 
while Round Island and Cottonwood gill net test fisheries are planned to begin 
on July 12th. During the first 10 days at Whonnock no sockeye were caught 
however since July 2 sockeye catches have increased significantly with early 
stock identification analyses indicating the majority of the sockeye being 
Early Stuart and Chilliwack sockeye. In-season assessment of Early Stuart 
sockeye will be provided later in July once more information becomes available. 
In-season assessment of all run timing groups generally occurs shortly after 
identification of their peak migration through marine areas. 

Currently, First Nations food, social and ceremonial (FSC) sockeye fisheries 
have been restricted by the 3 week Early Stuart window closure with limited 
fishing opportunities in the Fraser River directed at Chinook salmon. The start-
up of sockeye directed FSC fisheries is not anticipated before mid to late July 
depending upon location and will be based on the identification of sockeye TAC 
for Early Summer or Summer run sockeye. FSC fishers in marine approach areas, 
as well as the Fraser River are requested to check for the opening times and 
any restrictions in their local area. Commercial and recreational fisheries are 
not anticipated to begin until the end of July or early August once commercial 
TAC has been identified.

The next in-season meeting of the Fraser River Panel is scheduled to occur on 
Friday, July 13, 2018.


FOR MORE INFORMATION:

Regional Salmon Team - DFO Pacific
DFO.PacificSalmonRMT-EGRSaumonduPacifique.MPO@dfo-mpo.gc.ca

Fisheries & Oceans Operations Center - FN0579
Sent July 10, 2018 at 1441

Return to Main Menu

Visit Fisheries and Oceans Canada on the Web at http://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca
Printed from the Pacific Region web site on May 16, 2024 at 2043