Fishery Notice

The Fraser River Panel met Tuesday, July 30, to receive an update on the 
migration of the Fraser Sockeye and Pink runs to date and review the status of 
migration conditions in the Fraser River watershed.	

Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) provided forecasts of the 2019 Fraser River 
Sockeye and Pink salmon abundance, timing and diversion rate to the Fraser 
Panel for pre-season planning. The majority of Sockeye returning in 2019 will 
be recruits from adult spawners in 2014 and 2015. DFO has advised that Fraser 
River Sockeye salmon forecasts for 2019 continue to be highly uncertain due to 
variability in annual survival rates and uncertainty about changes in their 
productivity as a result changing ocean conditions from 2013 to 2018 that 
included the warm blob and an El Nino event. The 2019 Pink salmon return will 
be the recruits from the adult spawners in 2017 which was a very poor return 
year for Fraser Pink salmon. 

For pre-season planning purposes, the Fraser Panel used the 50% probability 
level forecast (equal chance of a higher or lower return) of 4,795,000 fish for 
all Sockeye management groups. This is similar to the cycle average of 4.789 
million. The largest contributing stocks for the 2019 return are expected to be 
the Chilko, Stellako, Quesnel and Early Shuswap.

For Pink salmon, the Fraser Panel used the 50% probability level forecast 
(equal chance of a higher or lower return) of 5,018,600 Pink salmon. This is 
well below the long term average of 12.7 million.

The Early Stuart and Chilko forecast timing of July 5 and August 10 
respectively, were adopted by the Fraser Panel at the June meeting in 
Suquamish, Washington. Timing for all other Sockeye stocks is based on 
historical correlations with the Chilko timing mentioned above. The pre-season 
forecast of the proportion of Fraser River Sockeye and Pink salmon diverting 
their migration through Johnstone Strait is 69% and 50% respectively, which the 
Panel also adopted for planning purposes.

For pre-season planning purposes the Fraser Panel has adopted management 
adjustments for Early Stuart based on the historical median for all years, 
Early Summer based on the historical median for the dominant/sub-dominant years 
only (2018/19 cycles) and Summer run Sockeye based on the historical median for 
all years. The Late run management adjustment is based on the weighted odd year 
median excluding Birkenhead which is based on the all years median. 

Model predicted management adjustments based on the water discharge and 
temperature predictions were not adopted largely due to the high degree of 
uncertainty in the forecasts. Management adjustments are additional fish that 
are removed from identified harvest levels and allowed to escape upstream in an 
attempt to assist in achievement of identified escapement objectives for the 
different run timing groups. In-season information over the coming weeks will 
help to inform future decisions on management adjustments for the Early Summer 
and Summer run management groups.  Early Stuart and Late run management groups 
will be managed based on their respective Low Abundance Exploitation Rates 
(LAERs) of 10% and 20%. There will be no in-season estimates of management 
adjustment for Early Stuart and Late run Sockeye in 2019 unless their 
respective run sizes are considerably larger than the median forecast and 
generate TAC. It is anticipated they will be managed to the LAER, with the 
expected outcome of a spawning escapement being below goal.

The observed water temperature at Qualark on July 29 was 18.6° Celsius which is 
0.6° Celsius above average for this date. Water temperatures are forecast to 
increase to 19.0° Celsius by August 4. The Fraser River discharge at Hope on 
July 29 was 4,047 cubic meters per second which is 9% below the average 
discharge for this date and is predicted to drop to 3,776 cubic meters per 
second by August 4.

A significant rock slide in the Big Bar area of the Fraser River just upstream 
from the community of Lillooet has created a 5 meter high waterfall/cascade in 
this section of the river.  This has created a migration passage challenge for 
all salmon that are destined for rivers and streams upstream of this slide. 
Very preliminary results from hydroacoustics and radio tagging during the past 
several days continue to indicate extremely low levels of passage of Chinook 
and Sockeye at the slide at current water levels. Significant efforts are being 
made to move fish past the blockage by airlifting and other methods. In a 
further attempt to mitigate the lack of fish passage, some fish have been 
captured for enhancement purposes. A Unified Command Incident Management Team 
has been developed which includes participation of the Federal and Provincial 
governments as well as a number of Fraser First Nations. Information and 
updates regarding the slide and work being done to address it is located at the 
link below.  

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/safety/emergency-preparedness-response-
recovery/emergency-response-and-recovery/incident-summaries/big-bar-landslide-
incident

Gill net test fishing catches continue to be very poor both in the marine 
approach areas (Areas 12 and 20) as well as in-river. The Area 12 and 20 purse 
seine test fisheries have also had very poor catches to date. Due to the low 
Sockeye abundance to date potential start dates for the Area 13 purse seine 
test fishery and the Area 4b/5 gill net test fishery will be reviewed again 
later in the week.  

During the Panel call today the run size for Early Stuart Sockeye was not 
adjusted  from the p25 forecast of 27,000 with an Area 20 timing of July 8. No 
changes were made to the run size for the other management groups although very 
low numbers have been observed to date. Currently the Early Summer return is 
tracking below the p25 run size of 221,000 which would result in no TAC being 
available.

The estimated escapement of Early Stuart, Early Summer and Summer Run Sockeye 
past Mission as of July 29 is 25,600, 37,900 and 4,900 respectively. To date 
there have been very low numbers of four year old Sockeye in all test 
fisheries. All run timing groups where information is available are tracking 
well below the p50 pre-season forecast abundance levels. In-season assessment 
of all run timing groups generally occurs shortly after identification of their 
peak migration through marine areas.

Fraser Pink salmon run size and timing estimates are expected to be available 
starting in August.

Currently, First Nations food, social and ceremonial (FSC) Sockeye fisheries in 
many areas are still under a 4 week window closure to protect Early Stuart and 
the earlier timed Early Summer run stocks. Due to the very low abundance of 
Fraser Sockeye to date, the start-up of Sockeye directed FSC fisheries will 
continue to be delayed until the identification of Sockeye TAC for Early 
Summers or Summers, as well as, taking into account considerations for impacts 
from the rock slide at Big Bar. The marine and lower Fraser River areas that 
originally planned to open to Sockeye retention in late July will remain closed 
to Sockeye retention until further notice. FSC fishers in marine approach areas 
as well as the Fraser River are requested to check for the opening times and 
any restrictions in their local area as additional restrictions are being 
considered as a result of the slide. Commercial and recreational Sockeye 
fisheries are not being considered at this time. 

The next in-season meeting of the Fraser River Panel is scheduled to occur on 
Friday, August 2, 2019.

FOR MORE INFORMATION:

Regional Salmon Team - DFO Pacific
DFO.PacificSalmonRMT-EGRSaumonduPacifique.MPO@dfo-mpo.gc.ca

Fisheries & Oceans Operations Center - FN0724
Sent July 30, 2019 at 1539

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Printed from the Pacific Region web site on August 23, 2026 at 2134