Fishery Notice

The Fraser River Panel met Tuesday, July 23, to receive an update on the 
migration of the Fraser Sockeye and Pink runs to date and review the status of 
migration conditions in the Fraser River watershed.	

Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) provided forecasts of the 2019 Fraser River 
Sockeye and Pink salmon abundance, timing and diversion rate to the Fraser 
Panel for pre-season planning. The majority of Sockeye returning in 2019 will 
be recruits from adult spawners in 2014 and 2015. DFO has advised that Fraser 
River Sockeye salmon forecasts for 2019 continue to be highly uncertain due to 
variability in annual survival rates and uncertainty about changes in their 
productivity as a result changing ocean conditions from 2013 to 2018 that 
included the warm blob and an El Nino event. The 2019 Pink salmon return will 
be the recruits from the adult spawners in 2017 which was a very poor return 
year for Fraser Pink salmon. 

For pre-season planning purposes, the Fraser Panel used the 50% probability 
level forecast (equal chance of a higher or lower return) of 4,795,000 fish for 
all Sockeye management groups. This is similar to the cycle average of 4.789 
million. The largest contributing stocks for the 2019 return are expected to be 
the Chilko, Stellako, Quesnel and Early Shuswap.

For Pink salmon, the Fraser Panel used the 50% probability level forecast 
(equal chance of a higher or lower return) of 5,018,600 Pink salmon. This is 
well below the long term average of 12.7 million.

The Early Stuart and Chilko forecast timing of July 5 and August 10 
respectively, were adopted by the Fraser Panel at the June meeting in 
Suquamish, Washington. Timing for all other Sockeye stocks is based on 
historical correlations with the Chilko timing mentioned above. The pre-season 
forecast of the proportion of Fraser River Sockeye and Pink salmon diverting 
their migration through Johnstone Strait is 69% and 50% respectively, which the 
Panel also adopted for planning purposes.

For pre-season planning purposes the Fraser Panel has adopted management 
adjustments for Early Stuart based on the historical median for all years, 
Early Summer based on the historical median for the dominant/sub-dominant years 
only (2018/19 cycles) and Summer run Sockeye based on the historical median for 
all years. The Late run management adjustment is based on the weighted odd year 
median excluding Birkenhead which is based on the all years median. 

Model predicted management adjustments based on the water discharge and 
temperature predictions were not adopted largely due to the high degree of 
uncertainty in the forecasts. Management adjustments are additional fish that 
are removed from identified harvest levels and allowed to escape upstream in an 
attempt to assist in achievement of identified escapement objectives for the 
different run timing groups. In-season information over the coming weeks will 
help to inform future decisions on management adjustments for the Early Summer 
and Summer run management groups.  Early Stuart and Late run management groups 
will be managed based on their respective Low Abundance Exploitation Rates 
(LAERs) of 10% and 20%. There will be no in-season estimates of management 
adjustment for Early Stuart and Late run Sockeye in 2019 unless their 
respective run sizes are considerably larger than the median forecast and 
generate TAC. It is anticipated they will be managed to the LAER, with the 
expected outcome of a spawning escapement being below goal.

The observed water temperature at Qualark on July 22 was 17.7° Celsius which is 
0.5° Celsius above average for this date. Water temperatures are forecast to 
increase to 18.8° Celsius by July 28. The Fraser River discharge at Hope on 
July 22 was 4,691 cubic meters per second which is 3% below the average 
discharge for this date and is predicted to drop to 4,505 cubic meters per 
second by July 28.

A significant rock slide in the Fraser River in the Big Bar area of the river 
just upstream from the community of Lillooet has creates a 5 meter high 
waterfall/cascade in this section of the river.  This has created a migration 
passage challenge for all salmon that are destined for rivers and streams 
upstream of this slide. A Unified Command Incident Management Team has been 
developed which includes participation of the Federal and Provincial 
governments as well as a number of Fraser First Nations. Information regarding 
the slide and work being done to address it is located at the link below.  

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/safety/emergency-preparedness-response-
recovery/emergency-response-and-recovery/incident-summaries/big-bar-landslide-
incident

Gill net test fishing catches continue to be very poor and has resulted in a 
delayed start up for the purse seine test vessels until later this week. The 
start up of purse seine test fisheries is currently scheduled for July 25 in 
Area 12 and July 26 in Area 20. Start date for the Area 13 purse seine test 
fishery will be reviewed during the Friday Panel meeting. The start up of the 
Area 4b/5 gill net test fishery in US waters will be discussed in the Friday 
Panel meeting as well for a potential start on Saturday, July 27.

During the Panel call today the run size for Early Stuart Sockeye was not 
adjusted  from the p25 forecast of 27,000 with an Area 20 timing of July 8. No 
changes were made to the run size for the other management groups despite the 
low numbers observed to date.

The estimated escapement of Early Stuart, Early Summer and Summer Run Sockeye 
past Mission as of July 22 is 24,400, 16,700 and 1,700 respectively. To date 
there have been very low numbers of four year old Sockeye in all test fisheries 
and all run timing groups where data is available are tracking below the p50 
abundance levels. In-season assessment of all run timing groups generally 
occurs shortly after identification of their peak migration through marine 
areas.

Fraser Pink salmon run size and timing estimates are expected to be available 
starting in August.

Currently, First Nations food, social and ceremonial (FSC) Sockeye fisheries 
are closed due to a 4 week window closure to protect Early Stuart and the 
earlier timed Early Summer run stocks. Due to the very low abundance of Fraser 
Sockeye to date, the start-up of Sockeye directed FSC fisheries will be delayed 
until the identification of Sockeye TAC for Early Summers or Summers, as well 
as taking into account considerations for impacts from the rock slide at Big 
Bar. The marine areas that originally planned to open to Sockeye retention on 
July 22 remain closed to Sockeye retention until further notice. FSC fishers in 
marine approach areas as well as the Fraser River are requested to check for 
the opening times and any restrictions in their local area as additional 
restrictions are being considered as a result of the slide. Commercial and 
recreational fisheries are not anticipated to begin until the end of July or 
August depending on the identification of commercial TAC. 

The next in-season meeting of the Fraser River Panel is scheduled to occur on 
Friday, July 26, 2019.

FOR MORE INFORMATION:

Regional Salmon Team - DFO Pacific
DFO.PacificSalmonRMT-EGRSaumonduPacifique.MPO@dfo-mpo.gc.ca

Fisheries & Oceans Operations Center - FN0687
Sent July 23, 2019 at 1616

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Visit Fisheries and Oceans Canada on the Web at http://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca
Printed from the Pacific Region web site on August 27, 2026 at 1341