Fishery Notice

The Fraser River Panel met Friday, July 19, to receive an update on the 
migration of the Fraser sockeye and pink runs to date and review the status of 
migration conditions in the Fraser River watershed.	

Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) provided forecasts of the 2019 Fraser River 
sockeye and pink salmon abundance, timing and diversion rate to the Fraser 
Panel for pre-season planning. The majority of sockeye returning in 2019 will 
be recruits from adult spawners in 2014 and 2015. DFO has advised that Fraser 
River sockeye salmon forecasts for 2019 continue to be highly uncertain due to 
variability in annual survival rates and uncertainty about changes in their 
productivity as a result changing ocean conditions from 2013 to 2018 that 
included the warm blob and an El Nino event. The 2019 pink salmon return will 
be the recruits from the adult spawners in 2017 which was a very poor return 
year for Fraser pink salmon. 

For pre-season planning purposes, the Fraser Panel used the 50% probability 
level forecast (equal chance of a higher or lower return) of 4,795,000 fish for 
all sockeye management groups. This is similar to the cycle average of 4.789 
million. The largest contributing stocks for the 2019 return are expected to be 
the Chilko, Stellako, Quesnel and Early Shuswap.

For pink salmon, the Fraser Panel used the 50% probability level forecast 
(equal chance of a higher or lower return) of 5,018,600 pink salmon. This is 
well below the long term average of 12.7 million.

The Early Stuart and Chilko forecast timing of July 5 and August 10 
respectively, were adopted by the Fraser Panel at the June meeting in 
Suquamish, Washington. Timing for all other sockeye stocks is based on 
historical correlations with the Chilko timing mentioned above. The pre-season 
forecast of the proportion of Fraser River sockeye and pink salmon diverting 
their migration through Johnstone Strait is 69% and 50% respectively, which the 
Panel also adopted for planning purposes.

For pre-season planning purposes the Fraser Panel has adopted management 
adjustments for Early Stuart based on the historical median for all years, 
Early Summer based on the historical median for the dominant/sub-dominant years 
only (2018/19 cycles) and Summer run sockeye based on the historical median for 
all years. The Late run management adjustment is based on the weighted odd year 
median excluding Birkenhead which is based on the all years median. 

Model predicted management adjustments based on the water discharge and 
temperature predictions were not adopted largely due to the high degree of 
uncertainty in the forecasts. Management adjustments are additional fish that 
are removed from identified harvest levels and allowed to escape upstream in an 
attempt to assist in achievement of identified escapement objectives for the 
different run timing groups. In-season information over the coming weeks will 
help to inform future decisions on management adjustments for the Early Summer 
and Summer run management groups while the Early Stuart and Late run management 
group will be managed based on the respective Low Abundance Exploitation Rate 
(LAER) of 10% and 20% respectively. There will be no in-season estimates of 
management adjustment for Early Stuart and Late run sockeye in 2019 unless 
their respective run sizes are considerably larger than the median forecast and 
generate TAC. It is anticipated they will be managed to the LAER, with the 
expected outcome of a spawning escapement being below goal.

The observed water temperature at Qualark on July 18 was 18.0° Celsius which is 
1.4° Celsius above average for this date. Water temperatures are forecast to 
increase to 18.3° Celsius by July 24. The Fraser River discharge at Hope on 
July 18 was 4,456 cubic meters per second which is 14% below the average 
discharge for this date.

A significant rock slide in the Fraser River in the Big Bar area of the river 
just upstream from the community of Lillooet has creates a 5 meter high 
waterfall/cascade in this section of the river.  This has created a migration 
passage challenge for all salmon that are destined for rivers and streams 
upstream of this slide. A Unified Command Incident Management Team has been 
developed which includes participation of the Federal and Provincial 
governments as well as a number of Fraser First Nations. Information regarding 
the slide and work being done to address it is located at the link below.  

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/safety/emergency-preparedness-response-
recovery/emergency-response-and-recovery/incident-summaries/big-bar-landslide-
incident

Gill net test fishing began in the Fraser River on June 24 at Whonnock, July 2 
at Qualark Creek and July 12 at Cottonwood.  In Marine areas gill net test 
fishing began on July 10 in Area 20 and July 11 in Area 12 at Round Island. The 
Area 4b/5 gillnet test fishery in US waters has not been initiated to date due 
to the low abundance of sockeye in all other test fisheries. The start up of 
Purse seine test fisheries may be delayed from the scheduled start dates of 
July 23 in Area 12, July 24 in Area 20 and July 25 in Area 13. A decision as to 
when to initiate marine purse seine test fisheries will be made on Monday, July 
22. 

During the Panel call today the run size for  Early Stuart sockeye was reduced 
from the p50 pre-season forecast of 41,000 to the p25 forecast of 27,000 with 
an Area 20 timing of July 8 versus the pre-season forecast timing of July 5. 
The estimated escapement of Early Stuart sockeye past Mission as of July 18 is 
20,200. To date there has been very low numbers of four year old sockeye in all 
test fisheries and all run timing groups where data is available are tracking 
below the p50 abundance levels at this time. In-season assessment of all run 
timing groups generally occurs shortly after identification of their peak 
migration through marine areas.

Currently, First Nations food, social and ceremonial (FSC) sockeye fisheries 
are closed due to a 4 week window closure to protect Early Stuart and the 
earlier timed Early Summer run stocks. Due to the very low abundance of Fraser 
sockeye to date, the start-up of sockeye directed FSC fisheries will be delayed 
until the identification of sockeye TAC for Early Summers or Summers, as well 
as taking into account considerations for impacts from the rock slide at Big 
Bar. The marine areas originally planned to open to sockeye retention July 22 
will not open as scheduled. FSC fishers in marine approach areas as well as the 
Fraser River are requested to check for the opening times and any restrictions 
in their local area as additional restrictions are being considered as a result 
of the slide. Commercial and recreational fisheries are not anticipated to 
begin until the end of July or August depending on the identification of 
commercial TAC. 

The next in-season meeting of the Fraser River Panel is scheduled to occur on 
Tuesday, July 23, 2019.

FOR MORE INFORMATION:

Regional Salmon Team - DFO Pacific
DFO.PacificSalmonRMT-EGRSaumonduPacifique.MPO@dfo-mpo.gc.ca

Fisheries & Oceans Operations Center - FN0681
Sent July 19, 2019 at 1615

Return to Main Menu

Visit Fisheries and Oceans Canada on the Web at http://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca
Printed from the Pacific Region web site on August 25, 2026 at 1618