Fishery Notice

The Fraser River Panel met Friday, July 12, to receive an update on the 
migration of the Fraser sockeye and pink runs to date and review the status of 
migration conditions in the Fraser River watershed.	

Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) provided forecasts of the 2019 Fraser River 
sockeye and pink salmon abundance, timing and diversion rate to the Fraser 
Panel for pre-season planning. The majority of sockeye returning in 2019 will 
be recruits from adult spawners in 2014 and 2015 with the latter being the 
Adams River sub-dominant cycle line. DFO has advised that Fraser River sockeye 
salmon forecasts for 2019 continue to be highly uncertain due to variability in 
annual survival rates and uncertainty about changes in their productivity as a 
result changing ocean conditions from 2013 to 2018 that included the warm blob 
and an El Nino event. The 2019 pink salmon return will be the recruits from the 
adult spawners in 2017 which was a very poor return year for Fraser pink 
salmon. 

To put the sockeye run size forecast uncertainty into context, there is a one 
in four chance that the actual number of returning sockeye will be at or below 
2,891,000 fish (the 25% probability level forecast) and there is a one in four 
chance that the actual number of returning sockeye will be at or above 
8,676,000 fish (the 75% probability level forecast). For pre-season planning 
purposes, the Fraser Panel used the 50% probability level forecast (equal 
chance of a higher or lower return) of 4,795,000 fish for all management 
groups. This is similar to the cycle average of 4.789 million. The largest 
contributing stocks for the 2019 return are expected to be the Chilko, 
Stellako, Quesnel and Early Shuswap.

The pink salmon run size forecast suggests there is a one in four chance that 
the actual number of returning pink salmon will be at or below 3,577,000 fish 
(the 25% probability level forecast) and there is a one in four chance that the 
actual number of returning pink salmon will be at or above 7,513,000 fish (the 
75% probability level forecast). For pre-season planning purposes, the Fraser 
Panel used the 50% probability level forecast (equal chance of a higher or 
lower return) of 5,018,600 pink salmon. This is well below the long term 
average of 12.7 million.

For 2019 pre-season planning purposes the Early Stuart and Chilko forecast 
timing of July 5 and August 10 respectively, were adopted by the Fraser Panel 
at the June meeting in Suquamish, Washington. Timing for all other sockeye 
stocks is based on historical correlations with the Chilko timing mentioned 
above. The pre-season forecast of the proportion of Fraser River sockeye and 
pink salmon diverting their migration through Johnstone Strait is 69% and 50% 
respectively, which the Panel also adopted for planning purposes.

The snow pack volume in the Fraser River watershed was near average in March 
and April of this year, however a warmer than normal spring resulted in early 
snowmelt throughout the Fraser watershed and snowpack well below average  by 
June. As such it is anticipated that water levels will be well below average 
during the sockeye and pink migration period. This combined with an above 
average forecast for air temperatures for the summer of 2019 has resulted in a 
prediction of water temperatures that will be above the historic mean for July 
and August. Actual water temperatures and discharge levels will be monitored 
closely during the 2019 return to determine if migration issues are developing. 

For pre-season planning purposes the Fraser Panel has adopted management 
adjustments for Early Stuart based on the historical median for all years, 
Early Summer based on the historical median for the dominant/sub-dominant years 
only (2018/19 cycles) and Summer run sockeye based on the historical median for 
all years. The Late run management adjustment is based on the weighted odd year 
median excluding Birkenhead which is based on the all years median. 

Model predicted management adjustments based on the water discharge and 
temperature predictions were not adopted largely due to the high degree of 
uncertainty in the forecasts. Management adjustments are additional fish that 
are removed from identified harvest levels and allowed to escape upstream in an 
attempt to assist in achievement of identified escapement objectives for the 
different run timing groups. In-season information over the coming weeks will 
help to inform future decisions on management adjustments for the Early Summer 
and Summer run management groups while the Early Stuart and Late run management 
group will be managed based on the respective Low Abundance Exploitation Rate 
(LAER) of 10% and 20% respectively. There will be no in-season estimates of 
management adjustment for Early Stuart and Late run sockeye in 2019 unless 
their respective run sizes are considerably larger than the median forecast and 
generate TAC. It is anticipated they will be managed to the LAER, with the 
expected outcome of a spawning escapement being below goal.

The observed water temperature at Qualark on July 11th was 17.6° Celsius which 
is 1.7° Celsius above average for this date. Water temperatures are forecast to 
increase to 18.1° Celsius by July 17th. The Fraser River discharge at Hope on 
July 11th was 4,371 cubic meters per second which is 22% below the average 
discharge for this date.

A significant rock slide has occurred in the Fraser River in the Big Bar area 
of the river just upstream from the community of Lillooet resulting in creation 
of 5 meter high waterfall/cascade in this section of the river.  These 
conditions have  created a migration passage challenge for all salmon that are 
destined for rivers and streams upstream of this slide. A Unified Command 
Incident Management Team has been developed which includes participation of the 
Federal and Provincial governments as well as a number of Fraser First Nations. 
Information regarding the slide and work being done to address it is located at 
the link below.  

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/safety/emergency-preparedness-response-
recovery/emergency-response-and-recovery/incident-summaries/big-bar-landslide-
incident

Gill net test fishing began in the Fraser River on June 24 at Whonnock, July 2 
at Qualark Creek and July 12 at Cottonwood.  In Marine areas gill net test 
fishing began on July 10 in Area 20 and July 11 in Area 12 at Round Island. To 
date sockeye catches have been low in all test fisheries.  In-season assessment 
of Early Stuart sockeye will be provided later in July once more information 
becomes available. In-season assessment of all run timing groups generally 
occurs shortly after identification of their peak migration through marine 
areas.

Currently, First Nations food, social and ceremonial (FSC) sockeye fisheries 
are closed due a 4 week window closure to protect Early Stuart and the earlier 
timed Early Summer run stocks . Very limited fishing opportunities directed at 
Chinook salmon for ceremonial purposes have occurred to date. The start-up of 
sockeye directed FSC fisheries is not anticipated before late July or early 
August depending upon location and will be based on the identification of 
sockeye TAC for Early Summers or Summers, in-season run-timing information, as 
well as considerations as a result of the slide at Big Bar. FSC fishers in 
marine approach areas as well as the Fraser River are requested to check for 
the opening times and any restrictions in their local area. Commercial and 
recreational fisheries are not anticipated to begin until the end of July or 
August depending on the identification of commercial TAC. 

The next in-season meeting of the Fraser River Panel is scheduled to occur on 
Tuesday, July 16, 2019.

FOR MORE INFORMATION:

Regional Salmon Team - DFO Pacific
DFO.PacificSalmonRMT-EGRSaumonduPacifique.MPO@dfo-mpo.gc.ca

Fisheries & Oceans Operations Center - FN0648
Sent July 12, 2019 at 1623

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Printed from the Pacific Region web site on August 24, 2026 at 1245