Fishery Notice

The Fraser River Panel met on Friday, July 28 to receive an update on the 
migration of the Fraser sockeye and pink runs to date and review the status of 
migration conditions in the Fraser River watershed.	

Gill net test fishing catches remain very poor in Area 12 but improved 
substantially in Area 20 yesterday.  Conversely, purse seine test fishing 
catches improved substantially in Area 12 while Area 20 showed only modest 
increases yesterday. In-river gill net test catches have continued to be very 
poor since testing began in early July. 

Stock identification information continues to show a decline in the proportion 
of Early Stuart sockeye in all areas with Summer run stocks now dominating the 
stock proportion in all marine areas. In-river stock identification information 
is highly uncertain as sample size has been extremely low. The first 
observation of late run stocks occurred in Area 20 on July 26. 

Daily Mission hydroacoustics escapement estimates have continued to be very low 
ranging from 1,300 to 4,500 over the past several days. The total estimated 
sockeye escapement as of July 27 is 80,600. Hell's Gate observations continue 
to be extremely low in recent days. 

During today's Panel call, the start-up of the purse seine test fishery in Area 
13 was confirmed for Monday, July 31. Based on the gill net and seine test 
fishery catches in Areas 12 and 20, the diversion rate through Johnstone Strait 
has increased to 32% which remains below the pre-season predicted rate of 51% 
for the entire season.

The most recent DNA samples taken in the marine test fisheries show sockeye 
stock compositions in Area 20 of approximately 2% Early Stuart, 30% Early 
Summer,  67% Summer and 1% Late run stocks. In Area 12 the stock composition 
was 0% Early Stuart, 22% Early Summer, 78% Summer and 0% Late run stocks. 

During the call today, the Fraser Panel made no changes to the Early Stuart run 
size of 50,000 with an Area 20 peak run timing of July 3. The estimated 
escapement past Mission of Early Stuart sockeye as of July 27 is 43,900 fish. 

Early Summer run stocks continue to track well below the p25 forecast of 
166,000 with some of the later timed stocks in this group just beginning to 
show in recent marine test fisheries samples. During the Panel call today the 
decision was made to remain at the provisional run size for Early Summers of 
166,000 (p25 forecast) that was adopted at Tuesdays meeting. It is anticipated 
that a further reduction to the Early summer run size is likely to occur at 
next Tuesdays meeting. At this run size there is no TAC available and as such 
no sockeye directed fisheries are being considered at this time. 

Summer run stocks are also tracking well below the p25 forecast level, however, 
it is far too early to make any run size modifications at this time. The 
estimated escapement of Early Summer-run and Summer-run sockeye past Mission 
through July 27 is only 25,300 and 11,400 respectively. Both are well below the 
expected levels for this date.

On July 27, the Fraser River water discharge at Hope was 3,280 m3/s, which is 
approximately 29% lower than average for this date. The water temperature of 
the Fraser River at Qualark Creek on July 27 increased to 18.6°C due largely to 
warming air temperatures in recent days and is 0.7°C higher than average for 
this date. The forecast is for water temperatures to increase to 19.9°C by 
August 2. Due to the very low discharge levels, water temperatures are highly 
influenced by air temperatures.

For pre-season planning purposes the Fraser Panel had adopted management 
adjustments (MA) for Early Summer, Summer and Late run sockeye that reflect the 
forecast water temperature and discharge conditions based on the May and June 
information for Early Summer and Summer run sockeye, and anticipated river 
entry dates for Late run fish. Due to the very poor return of Early Summer run 
stocks they are now being managed based on a Low Abundance Exploitation Rate 
(LAER) approach and as such there will be no modifications to the in-season MA 
for this group. Management adjustments are additional fish that are set aside 
from identified harvest levels and allowed to migrate upstream in an attempt to 
assist in achievement of identified spawner objectives for the different run 
timing groups. In-season information in the coming weeks will help to inform 
future decisions on management adjustments for the Summer management group 
while the Early Stuart, Early Summer and Late run management groups will be 
managed based on the respective LAER for each group (10% for Early Stuart and 
Early Summers and 20% for Lates). There will be no in-season estimates of 
management adjustment for Early Stuart, Early Summer and Late run groups in 
2017.

First Nations food, social and ceremonial (FSC) sockeye fisheries have been 
restricted by a 4 week window closure protecting Early Stuart and the earliest 
timed Early Summer run stocks with limited fishing opportunities to date 
directed at chinook salmon. Due to the apparent later than average run timing 
and/or weakness in the returns of Early Summer and Summer run stocks, the start-
up of sockeye directed FSC fisheries will continue to be delayed until there is 
an identification of TAC for Early Summer and/or Summer run sockeye. 

FSC fishers in marine approach areas as well as the Fraser River are requested 
to check for the opening times and any restrictions in their local area.

Given the low returns to date there are no fisheries directed upon Fraser River 
sockeye scheduled at this time, and updates will continue to be provided 
following meetings of the Fraser River Panel on Tuesdays and Fridays of each 
week.

The next in-season meeting of the Fraser River Panel is scheduled to occur on 
Tuesday, August 1, 2017.


FOR MORE INFORMATION:

Jennifer Nener 604-666-0789

Fisheries & Oceans Operations Center - FN0741
Sent July 28, 2017 at 1527

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