Fishery Notice

The Fraser River Panel met Friday, July 21 to receive an update on the 
migration of the Fraser sockeye and pink runs to date and review the status of 
migration conditions in the Fraser River watershed.	

Gill net test fishing catches continue to be very poor in both the marine and 
in-river testing areas.  Stock identification information continues to show a 
higher than expected proportions of Early Stuart sockeye largely due to the 
lower numbers of Early Summer and Summer run stocks showing to date.  No late 
run stocks have been observed at this time. 

Sample sizes from both in-river and marine test fisheries have remained low 
which results in a higher level of uncertainty in stock composition estimates.  
Hell's Gate observations have continued to decline. During today's Panel call 
the start-up of the Purse seine test fisheries in Areas 12 and 20 was confirmed 
for July 24 and 25 respectively.  In addition, Reef net test fishery 
observations will be conducted for the next 3 days to determine if Fraser 
sockeye are present in US waters.  The diversion rate through Johnstone Strait 
is currently estimated to be 16% which is well below the pre-season predicted 
rate of 51% for the entire season.

DNA analysis of samples taken in the marine test fisheries show sockeye stock 
compositions in Area 20 of approximately 21% Early Stuart, 52% Early Summers 
and 26% Summer run stocks.  During the call today, the Fraser Panel made no 
changes to the recently reduced Early Stuart run size of 50,000 with an Area 20 
peak run timing of July 3. The estimated escapement past Mission of Early 
Stuart sockeye as of July 20 is 40,000 fish. 

Early Summer run stocks are also tracking well below the p25 forecast of 
166,000 but it is too early to tell if the returns are as weak as they appear 
or just later than expected.  Although there was no formal change to the run 
size today at the p25 run size there is no TAC available and as such no sockeye 
directed fisheries are being considered at this time. It is anticipated that a 
formal run size will be adopted at the next Panel meeting on Tuesday, July 25.

In-season assessment of all run timing groups generally occurs shortly after 
identification of their peak migration through marine areas.  Early Summer run 
stocks are starting to build in marine and in-river test fishery samples. Run-
size estimates of Early Summer returns should be available in late July after 
their expected peak migration through marine areas.  The estimated escapement 
of Early Summer-run and Summer-run sockeye past Mission through July 20th is 
only 15,400 and 3,200 respectively. 

On July 20, the Fraser River water discharge at Hope was 3,784 m3/s, which is 
approximately 24% lower than average for this date. The temperature of the 
Fraser River at Qualark Creek on July 20 was 17.3°C, which is 0.4°C higher than 
average for this date and is forecast to increase to 18.4°C by July 26. Due to 
the very low discharge levels water temperatures are impacted more by the air 
temperatures they are exposed to.

For pre-season planning purposes the Fraser Panel has adopted management 
adjustments for Early Summer, Summer and Late run sockeye that reflect the 
forecast water temperature and discharge conditions based on the May and June 
information for Early Summer and Summers and anticipated river entry dates for 
Late run fish. Management adjustments are additional fish that are removed from 
identified harvest levels and allowed to migrate upstream in an attempt to 
assist in achievement of identified spawner objectives for the different run 
timing groups.  In-season information in the coming weeks will help to inform 
future decisions on management adjustments for the Early Summer and Summer 
management groups while the Early Stuart and Late run management groups will be 
managed based on the respective Low Abundance Exploitation Rate (LAER) for each 
group (10% for Early Stuart and 20% for Lates).  There will be no in-season 
estimates of management adjustment for Early Stuart in 2017 as the forecast 
returns are very low across most of the forecast range and it is anticipated 
they will be managed to the LAER, with the expected outcome of a spawning 
escapement well below target.

First Nations food, social and ceremonial (FSC) sockeye fisheries have been 
restricted by the 4 week window closure protecting Early Stuart and the 
earliest timed Early Summer run stocks with limited fishing opportunities to 
date directed at chinook salmon.  Due to the appearance of lateness and/or 
weakness in the returns of Early Summer and Summer run stocks, the start-up of 
sockeye directed FSC fisheries will continue to be delayed until the 
identification of TAC for Early Summer and/or Summer run sockeye. 

FSC fishers in marine approach areas as well as the Fraser River are requested 
to check for the opening times and any restrictions in their local area.

Given the low returns to date there are no fisheries directed upon Fraser River 
sockeye scheduled at this time, and updates will continue to be provided 
following meetings of the Fraser River Panel on Tuesdays and Fridays of each 
week.

The next in-season meeting of the Fraser River Panel is scheduled to occur on 
Tuesday, July 25, 2017.


FOR MORE INFORMATION:

Jennifer Nener 604-666-0789

Fisheries & Oceans Operations Center - FN0697
Sent July 21, 2017 at 1622

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