Fishery Notice

The Fraser River Panel met Tuesday, July 11, to receive an update on the 
migration of the Fraser sockeye and pink runs to date and review the status of 
migration conditions in the Fraser River watershed.	

Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) provided forecasts of the 2017 Fraser River 
sockeye and pink salmon abundance, timing and diversion rate to the Fraser 
Panel. The majority of sockeye returning in 2017 will be recruits from adult 
spawners in 2012 and 2013 both of which were low for their respective cycle 
lines. The pink salmon return is also coming off a very poor brood year 
escapement in 2015. DFO has advised that Fraser River sockeye and pink salmon 
forecasts for 2017 are highly uncertain due to variability in annual survival 
rates and uncertainty about changes in their productivity. 

To put the sockeye run size forecast uncertainty into context, there is a one 
in four chance that the actual number of returning sockeye will be at or below 
2,338,000 fish (the 25% probability level forecast) and there is a one in four 
chance that the actual number of returning sockeye will be at or above 
8,873,000 fish (the 75% probability level forecast). For pre-season planning 
purposes, the Panel used the 50% probability level forecast (equal chance of a 
higher or lower return) of 4,432,000 fish for all management groups. This is 
well below the cycle average of 8.5 million. The largest contributing stocks 
for the 2017 return are expected to be the Chilko, Late Stuart, Stellako and 
Harrison.

In the case of the pink forecast there is a one in four chance that the actual 
number of returning pink salmon will be at or below 6,177,000 fish (the 25% 
probability level forecast) and there is a one in four chance that the actual 
number of returning sockeye will be at or above 12,353,000 fish (the 75% 
probability level forecast). For pre-season planning purposes, the Panel used 
the 50% probability level forecast (equal chance of a higher or lower return) 
of 8,693,000 pinks. This is well below the cycle average of 12.4 million.

For 2017 pre-season planning purposes the Fraser Panel adopted Area 20 run 
timing for Early Stuart and Chilko sockeye of July 1 and August 6 respectively, 
both of which are slightly earlier than the recent median timing for each 
stock. Timing for all other sockeye stocks was based on historical correlations 
with the Early Stuart and Chilko timings mentioned above. For pink salmon the 
pre-season adopted Area 20 run timing of August 28 is the historical median. 
The pre-season forecast of the proportion of Fraser River sockeye and pink 
salmon diverting their migration to the Fraser River through Johnstone Strait 
is 51% and 50% respectively, which the Fraser Panel also adopted for planning 
purposes.

The snow pack volume in most of the Fraser River watershed was above average in 
May and June of this year with recent warm weather since mid-June resulting in 
a near normal timed freshet in 2017. As such it is anticipated that water 
levels will be near or slightly above average during the sockeye and pink 
migration periods. This combined with above average forecast for air 
temperatures has resulted in a prediction of water temperatures that are likely 
to be slightly above average for July and August. Actual water temperatures and 
discharge levels as well as fish condition will be monitored closely during the 
2017 return to determine if migration issues are developing. 

For pre-season planning purposes the Fraser Panel has adopted management 
adjustments for Early Summer, Summer and Late run sockeye that reflect the 
forecast conditions based on the May to June information for Early Summer and 
Summers and anticipated river entry dates for Late run fish. Management 
adjustments are additional fish that are removed from identified harvest levels 
and allowed to migrate upstream in an attempt to assist in achievement of 
identified spawner objectives for the different run timing groups. In-season 
information over the coming weeks will help to inform future decisions on 
management adjustments for the Early Summer and Summer management groups while 
the Early Stuart and Late run management groups will be managed based on the 
respective Low Abundance Exploitation Rate (LAER) for each group (10% for Early 
Stuart and 20% for Lates). There will be no in-season estimates of management 
adjustment for Early Stuart sockeye in 2017 as the forecast returns are very 
low across most of the forecast range and it is anticipated they will be 
managed to the LAER, with the expected outcome of a spawning escapement well 
below target.

Gill net test fishing began in the Fraser River on June 28 at Whonnock and on 
July 1 at Qualark Creek. In Area 20 the gillnet test fishery commenced 
operations on July 7.  Very few sockeye have been caught to date with early 
stock identification analyses indicating the majority of the sockeye being 
Early Stuart and Chilliwack. In-season assessment of Early Stuart sockeye will 
be provided later in July once more information becomes available. In-season 
assessment of all run timing groups generally occurs shortly after 
identification of their peak migration through marine areas. 

Currently, First Nations food, social and ceremonial (FSC) sockeye fisheries 
have been restricted by a 4 week window closure to protect Early Stuart and 
early timed Early Summer stocks, with limited fishing opportunities directed at 
chinook with non-retention of sockeye. The start-up of sockeye directed FSC 
fisheries is not anticipated before late July or Early August depending upon 
location and will be based on the identification of sockeye TAC for Early 
Summers or Summers. FSC fishers in marine approach areas as well as the Fraser 
River are requested to check for the opening times and any restrictions in 
their local area.

The next in-season meeting of the Fraser River Panel is scheduled to occur on 
Friday, July 15, 2017.


FOR MORE INFORMATION:

Jennifer Nener 604-666-0789

Fisheries & Oceans Operations Center - FN0644
Sent July 12, 2017 at 0944

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